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We study how venture capital works, how it shapes who builds technology, and who benefits. We make our research open, inform capital and technology policy, and bring people together to put the evidence to use.
About Colibrí Institute ↗White Paper II · forthcoming
A closer look at emerging managers’ returns and risk.
Higher returns leave an important question open: how should we understand the risk behind them? The Architecture of Returns examines 2,142 U.S. venture funds from 2000–2024. Emerging funds scored higher on two measures. One compares annualized return with how widely returns varied among funds raised in the same year. The other compares total value with the middle fund in that year. The first score was roughly 47% higher on average.
Group averages in White Paper II: two constructed efficiency measures and four conventional performance metrics.
Emerging funds had higher averages on both efficiency measures, IRR, TVPI and DPI. The RVPI difference was not statistically reliable. These are historical group comparisons; they do not predict a particular fund’s outcome.
Colibrí Institute, 2026 • Moncada, 2026
2,142 U.S.-based venture capital funds, 2000–2024.
The evidence base
Two studies, with the evidence behind each made clear.
Research
Research
The Architecture of Returns: Why Emerging Venture Capital Managers Are More Risk-Efficient
In White Paper II, emerging funds had a roughly 47% higher average return-to-dispersion score. Their TVPI averaged 28% above their vintage’s median, compared with 9% for established funds. Differences persisted after the study’s measured controls. The paper explains what those comparisons can, and cannot, tell us.
Why Emerging Venture Capital Managers Matter: Rethinking Institutional Portfolio Construction
White Paper I compares performance across 2,471 U.S. venture funds. Emerging funds had higher average returns in the historical sample, raising a practical question: what might screens based on firm age, fund sequence and assets under management miss?
Latest notes
Market context
Where venture capital is flowing.
In the first half of 2026, funds of $1 billion or more took 68.3% of every dollar committed to U.S. venture, up from 36.1% a year earlier, and twelve firms accounted for nearly three quarters of all commitments. Funds under $50 million made up 67.7% of every fund that closed, a decade high, and raised 4% of the money.
Concentration makes the question of access more pressing. Our research asks what performance data can tell us about the managers conventional screens may leave out.
U.S. venture funds under $50 million, first half of 2026.
Share of funds67.7%Share of capital4%Funds of $1 billion or more took 68.3% of every dollar committed to U.S. venture in the same period, up from 36.1% a year earlier, and twelve firms accounted for nearly three quarters of all commitments.
PitchBook • Stanford & Gao, 2026
Diagnostics
Free tools built from the published findings.
Our first paper has two free self-assessments: one for allocators and one for managers. Each takes about fifteen minutes and requires no account. Two more are forthcoming with White Paper II.
LiveLP Diagnostic
Review the screens your venture program uses and the assumptions behind them. A starting point for discussing how you find and assess managers.
Open the LP DiagnosticLiveGP Diagnostic
Review how your fund’s strategy, resources and operating readiness fit together, and prepare for the questions an allocator may ask.
Open the GP DiagnosticForthcomingConfiguration Coherence Diagnostic, Allocator edition
Use information from a data room to examine whether a fund’s portfolio plan fits its resources. The assessment explains the reasoning behind its result.
Get research updatesForthcomingConfiguration Coherence Diagnostic, Manager edition
A version for managers who want to examine their portfolio plan, including before a track record exists.
Get research updatesHow we measure risk shapes what we see. These findings invite a closer look at emerging managers, using measures that make the comparison and its limits clear.
Colibrí Institute · Research summary
Waitlist
Be first to hear when the research is ready.
The Architecture of Returns and both editions of the Configuration Coherence Diagnostic will be free to access. Join the research list and we will let you know when they are available.
We will email you when the paper and diagnostics are available. You may unsubscribe at any time.
For the investment committee
A two-page summary, exhibit pack and citation in three formats will accompany the paper, making it easier to bring the evidence into a discussion.
Advance copies
Press and analysts can request an advance copy at hello@colibri.institute.